Posted by
Cary Wesberry on Tuesday, March 11, 2008 12:14:57 AM
It's nearly impossible for Hillary Clinton to win more pledged delegates than Barack Obama, but can she still win the nomination? Yes, she can. Here's what her path to victory might look like.
To reach a nominating majority of 2,025 delegates, Clinton would need to win about 540 of the 957 delegates still up for grabs. Of this total, 611 are pledged delegates--to be allocated in the 12 remaining state primaries and caucuses; 346 are still-neutral super-delegates--the party honchos who are seated at the convention but not elected by the voters and can back whomever they please. (I'm relying on the Real Clear Politics estimate of still-neutral super-delegates.) The more pledged delegates Clinton wins in the remaining contests, the fewer super-delegates she will need. For example, if she wins 51 percent of the remaining pledged delegates, she will need 66 percent of the remaining super-delegates.
But if Clinton is to have any hope of the super-delegates' going 3-to-2 in her favor, she will need an impressive win in the Pennsylvania primary on April 22. A 10-point margin of victory might do it--adding 200,000 votes or so to her total haul in the primaries, which would put her within striking distance of Obama's lead in the popular vote. If you include Florida, where both candidates were on the ballot but did not campaign because the state was stripped of its delegates for breaking party rules, Obama currently leads the popular vote by less than 300,000 votes. Depending on the results from Mississippi's March 11 primary, Clinton would need to gain about 100,000 to 200,000 votes throughout the May primaries in North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, Oregon, and Kentucky to pull ahead.
While the Democratic nominee will ultimately be determined by the convention delegates, winning the popular vote would give Clinton a compelling claim that super-delegates should ratify the will of the voters--an argument that would fall on friendly ears in a party still aggrieved that Al Gore lost the Electoral College in 2000 despite winning the popular vote. "Imagine a split in the popular vote and the Electoral College--only this time the Electoral College does not have the Constitution conferring upon it moral legitimacy," writes Jay Cost of Real Clear Politics. "Which count will people prefer?"
Hillary Clinton will not give-up the White House until the very end when someone else is made the nominee. The column excerpted above is an interesting hypothetical showing how Hillary could indeed win the nomination. Aside from Hillary's possibilities in the Democrat race, I also find the Democrat VP spot speculations interesting. Would Obama ride shotgun if Hillary won the nomination and then asked him nicely in the way only Hillary can; with threats, money, and bribes? Since I personally don't find B. Hussein Obama to be the man of character so many others seem to, I say yes. He would take it if for no other reason than to plan ahead for 2012 or 2016.